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When it comes to U.S.-China relations, understanding people and attitudes on the ground can be just as critical as assessing economic and military metrics.
In a world where competition often drives policy, there’s a call for a more nuanced approach—one that factors in cultural insights and public sentiment. For this episode of Navigating Noise, I sat down with Ali Wyne, Senior Research and Advocacy Advisor for U.S.-China at the International Crisis Group, to discuss the importance of “great power opportunity” and the role of empathy in foreign policy.
Here are my key takeaways from this conversation. For the full discussion, catch the episode above.
Ali Wyne argues for a shift from “great-power competition” to “great-power opportunity”—a strategy that emphasizes positive, proactive U.S. policies rather than reactive ones. This framework, he explains, allows the U.S. to shape foreign policy around its own goals rather than always responding to rivals’ moves.
“The great power opportunity is… to articulate a foreign policy that isn’t so rigidly tethered to the statements, the actions, the intentions of our competitors.”
How does Chinese’s societal and cultural differences affect policy? Ali emphasizes the need for psychological nuance in understanding China. This approach goes beyond standard metrics, acknowledging the deeply rooted cultural and societal factors that influence China’s actions and mindset.
“We need to cultivate greater strategic empathy and be on guard against succumbing to projection bias… it’s about trying to understand if I were in that person’s shoes, how and why might I make these decisions?”
Ali stresses the importance of combining hard data with sentiment analysis for a fuller view of China’s social landscape. By pairing economic indicators with insights into public sentiment, policymakers can better understand on-the-ground realities.
“Combining data analysis with sentiment analysis is crucial… All these layers help develop a more textured sense of the country, its complexities, its contradictions.”
While China and Russia are often lumped together as adversaries, Wyne advises against reducing their relationship to a simple partnership. Each country has unique ambitions and tensions that prevent them from aligning fully.
“Is China gliding towards hegemony or staring down decline? My view is that neither assessment is accurate… there isn’t one unitary China, but in fact an infinite number of Chinas.”
Smaller nations are increasingly pursuing “multi-alignment”—navigating relationships with major powers like the U.S. and China on pragmatic terms. This approach reflects a shift in global diplomacy and challenges the U.S. to adapt.
“Today’s countries are saying… we don’t have to make a choice between the United States or China. We have our own agency to pursue our foreign policy.”
Teubner and Wyne agree on the importance of understanding culture before using technology to analyze it. For any meaningful insight, data analysis should be grounded in real, human-centered understanding.
“Ethnography precedes technology… you need that encounter with people to even build the right tools to find and interpret data responsibly.”
Ali Wyne’s insights highlight a different path forward for U.S.-China relations, one rooted in empathy, cultural understanding, and nuanced strategy. Building effective policy starts with grasping the complex human realities behind the data.
Listen to the full episode with Ali Wyne for a deeper dive into how strategic empathy and cultural insight can shape a more constructive approach to great-power dynamics.
