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Why are Russia and China closer than ever—and what could eventually pull them apart?
In this episode of Navigating Noise, I sat down with Sasha Gabuev, Director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, to unpack one of the most consequential relationships in global geopolitics.
Gabuev, a leading expert on China-Russian relations, has spent decades analyzing the strategic, economic, and cultural forces shaping this partnership. From his time as a journalist covering Kremlin diplomacy to his current role at Carnegie, Gabuev offers a rare perspective on why this relationship works—and where it’s likely to crack.
If you’re looking to understand the real drivers of the Russia-China relationship, this conversation is essential. Here are my key takeaways, but don’t miss the full episode above for the full depth of insight.
At its core, the partnership between Russia and China is transactional. Mutual interests like stable borders, economic complementarity, and shared governance philosophies drive this alignment. But this isn’t a storybook alliance—it’s grounded in necessity and shaped by history.
“A lot of people look at this relationship as having a secret sauce named shared animosity towards the United States… but I think there are forces driving the two closer to each other, even without the United States.”
Gabuev emphasized that while both countries view the U.S. as a competitor, their deeper motivations—like avoiding costly border disputes and leveraging each other’s strengths—are what truly sustain their relationship.
China’s economic and technological dominance makes it the clear senior partner. Gabuev highlighted how Russia’s geopolitical choices, particularly the war in Ukraine, have deepened its dependency on China.
“China gets stronger and has more leverage over Russia much faster thanks to the stupid and criminal war that Putin has launched… On most metrics, Russia is inferior to China.”
This growing asymmetry creates challenges for Russia, which must balance its reliance on China with its desire for autonomy.
While public statements often highlight unity, Gabuev noted that the relationship is not without friction. Cultural differences, historical mistrust, and the disparity in power introduce subtle but significant tensions.
“The Chinese… know that Russians have a huge ego. It’s better not to trump off this ego but to massage it… However, there’s still this mismatch between political rhetoric and the reality that China prioritizes its own interests.”
These tensions, though manageable now, could become more pronounced as the power gap widens.
Russia’s reliance on China is rooted in hard economic truths. While China gains access to Russian energy and raw materials, Russia depends on Chinese imports and investment to survive Western sanctions.
“Russia was able to amass troops to invade Ukraine only because it had so few troops on the border with China. This is one of the pillars of the relationship… peaceful borders allow both countries to focus elsewhere.”
The economic complementarity keeps the partnership afloat, but it also underscores Russia’s vulnerability.
Western sanctions on Russia have pushed it closer to China, while also forcing China to think more strategically about its own economic vulnerabilities.
“China was free riding on the sanctions, dumping legacy cars and other goods into Russia… but now there are costs attached, and some Chinese voices are beginning to question the wisdom of this alignment.”
Gabuev explained how sanctions are reshaping global alliances, with China learning from Russia’s experience to prepare for potential sanctions of its own.
Despite their shared interests, Russia and China’s relationship is unlikely to deepen into a formal alliance. Gabuev pointed to widening disparities in power and trust as reasons why this partnership has natural limits.
“What will China demand in return? That’s a question very much on the minds of Russian decision-makers.”
The asymmetry in leverage, combined with cultural differences, ensures that while this relationship is functional, it’s far from flawless.
Sasha Gabuev’s insights highlight a partnership built on pragmatism, not permanence. While mutual interests keep Russia and China aligned, the disparities in power and trust suggest an alliance that will face growing strain over time.
At Filter Labs, we specialize in helping organizations understand the nuanced dynamics of global alliances. By leveraging hyperlocal sentiment analysis, we uncover the hidden drivers of geopolitical decisions and empower decision-makers with actionable insights.
Listen to the full episode with Sasha Gabuev to understand the complexities behind one of the world’s most pivotal relationships.
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